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Search resuls for: "Jim Paulsen"


25 mentions found


☆ Surging inflation fears sent markets tumbling and Fed officials scrambling
  + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
Energy prices, which have been a major factor in the past two months' inflation readings, pushed higher on signs of further geopolitical turmoil. Minutes released Wednesday from the March Fed meeting showed officials were concerned about higher inflation and looking for more convincing evidence it is on a steady path lower. Sticky price CPI entails items such as housing, motor vehicle insurance and medical care services, while flexible price is concentrated in food, energy and vehicle prices. "If that's the case, you would require a decent amount of unemployment to get inflation all the way to 2.0%." That's why Furman and others have pushed for the Fed to rethink it's determined commitment to 2% inflation.
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☆ A US recession is coming - here are 5 reasons why
  + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Bank of America's strategists said the US could fall into a recession over the next 10 to 12 weeks. Bank stocks have tumbled in recent days. Frankly, a broad recession won't be a surprise to anyone at this point (especially Opening Bell readers). In other news:Whether or not the US is in a recession is a politically charged debate. These nine funds offer strong positioning through a recession and into the next bull market, in Bank of America's view.
☆ Stocks have entered a new bull market and the S&P 500 could soar 26% in the next 12 months, Leuthold Group's Jim Paulsen says
  + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The S&P 500 could spike 26% to hit 5,000 in the next 12 months, Leuthold Group's investment chief says. "I think the lows are in and I think we're starting a new bull market," Jim Paulsen told Bloomberg. He said the US economy is likely to avoid a recession, supporting the S&P 500 rising to a new milestone. I think the lows are in and I think we're starting a new bull market," he said during the Bloomberg interview that was broadcast Thursday. Paulsen sees stocks entering a new bull market on about 60/40 odds of the US avoiding recession or the economy experiencing a mild recession.
☆ We have to assume the Fed will continue its narrative well into the first quarter, says Citi's Chronert
  + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe have to assume the Fed will continue its narrative well into the first quarter, says Citi's ChronertJim Paulsen, Leuthold Group, and Scott Chronert, Citi, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how hard it'll be for markets to find good data, how Chronert is positioning and what the bond market is currently signaling.
☆ The difference between this comeback and the market's last failed bear market bounce
  + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
A 17% S & P 500 surge off a new bear-market low in a market drenched in stagflation panic? On a purely technical, tape-reading basis, the S & P 500 this trip has in fact now closed above its 200-day average, whereas it merely touched that threshold in August. The equal-weighted version of the S & P 500 is down only 8.5% this year and a mere 2% off its August peak, compared to 14.5% and 5% for the standard market-cap-weighted S & P, more evidence that the "typical stock" is holding up better than the biggest ones. This time, stocks began falling two months before the first Fed rate hike. Wall Street strategists, meantime, are collectively projecting a modest drop in the S & P 500 for 2023, the first time since at least 1999 when the consensus failed to target annual gains.
☆ Investors look for clues on consumer health as holiday shopping kicks off
  + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Investors are closely watching U.S. retail stocks as a barometer of consumer confidence as inflation bites, as the most important shopping season of the year begins on Friday. That would come in below both the 13.5% jump reported last year, and the 9.3% gain in 2020. Expectations for purchasing long-lasting manufactured goods fell 21% due to high interest rates and high prices, the survey found. Shares of Walmart are up 7.5% for the month to date, while shares of Target are down 1.2%. Kohl's, meanwhile, withdrew its forecast as it faces weakening demand due to rising prices.
☆ The Fed still has a shot at a soft landing, says Leuthold's Jim Paulsen
  + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed still has a shot at a soft landing, says Leuthold's Jim PaulsenJim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Leuthold Group, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' ahead of the open to break down his market outlook.
☆ Is the Fed 'going rogue'? Calls heat up to back off quest for 2% inflation
  + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
For at least a decade, the Federal Reserve's position that a 2% inflation rate is where the economy best functions has been taken as gospel. 'Going rogue' "As far as 2% is concerned, I think it's stupid," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group. Paulsen and Sternlicht aren't the only critics of Fed policy. Achieving a steady 2% inflation rate, however, has proven elusive for the Fed. 'The gold standard' for policy But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and most of his colleagues have rebuffed calls to raise the goal.
☆ Wall St Week Ahead With Black Friday ahead, investors look to U.S. consumer stocks
  + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Consumer discretionary stocks, a group whose members run the gamut from Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and automaker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) to retailer Target Corp (TGT.N), have been walloped by surging prices, with the S&P 500’s consumer discretionary sector falling nearly 33% for the year to date compared with a nearly 17% fall for the broader index. Investors poured a net $1.05 billion into consumer discretionary stocks in the past week, the sixth-largest weekly inflows since 2008, data from BofA Global Research showed. “Everybody is watching the strength of the consumer and so far the consumer has held.”Yruma is bullish on retailers Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N) and Target. To be sure, consumer stocks have had more than their fair share of woes this year. The bank's analysts are underweight the consumer discretionary sector.
☆ This may be the start of a traditional post-midterms rally as signs of cooling inflation emerge
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
October's cooler-than-expected consumer inflation report triggered a massive surge in stocks that could herald the traditional midterm election year fourth-quarter rally. To be sure, they also caution that there's risk the rally could be derailed by another hot inflation report or other factors, like the crypto meltdown. Thursday's CPI report breaks a string of inflation surprising to the upside. Bitcoin also rallied after the CPI report, gaining more than 6% to a level of $17,554 on Coin Metrics in mid-morning trading. Strategists warn the rally could be temporary, and Emanuel called it a "bear market rally."
☆ We are heading to a new recovery than a recession, says Leuthold's Paulsen
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are heading to a new recovery than a recession, says Leuthold's PaulsenJim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Leuthold Group, and Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley U.S. public policy strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how important Congress' majority is in policy direction over the next year, the risks to increased defense spending and more.
☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Leuthold Group's Jim Paulsen and Morgan Stanley's Michael Zezas
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Leuthold Group's Jim Paulsen and Morgan Stanley's Michael ZezasJim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Leuthold Group, and Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley U.S. public policy strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how important Congress' majority is in policy direction over the next year, the risks to increased defense spending and more.
☆ Meme stock rally could be sign that investor appetite for risk is returning
  + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The stock's Monday volume, which stood at over 10 million shares after the close, far exceeded the 506,000 shares investors have shorted, he said. "There is no way today’s price move is due to a short squeeze, it is virtually all long buying pressure," Dusaniwsky said. Many meme stocks have been pounded this year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, sapping investors’ appetite for risk. Shares of GameStop Corp (GME.N), which put meme stocks into the spotlight with its epic rally in 2021, are down 24% for the year to date while AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC.N) has fallen 60%. "If that’s the case that would further tamp down Treasury yields and create a tailwind for equities."
☆ Two takes on the market rally and whether it can last, with Sameer Samana and Jim Paulsen
  + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo takes on the market rally and whether it can last, with Sameer Samana and Jim PaulsenSameer Samana from Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Jim Paulsen from the Leuthold Group join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the negative impacts of Fed balance sheet tightening, instability of Fed policy and the market impact of inflation fears compared to recession fears.
☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana and Leuthold Group's Jim Paulsen
  + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana and Leuthold Group's Jim PaulsenSameer Samana from Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Jim Paulsen from the Leuthold Group join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the negative impact of Fed balance sheet tightening, instability of Fed policy and the market impact of inflation fears compared to recession fears.
☆ The bear market blues: a diagnosis for our times
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Alden Bentley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
John Schott MD, a portfolio manager at The Colony Group, retired psychiatrist and a recognized expert on market psychology, coined the term Bear Market Depressive Syndrome (BMDS) in his 1998 book "Mind Over Money." After prolonged bull markets, investors tend to go into denial during bear markets. MARKET RISK FACTORS ALMOST UNPRECEDENTEDThe S&P 500 (.SPX) was down more than 27% year-to-date in mid-October. "That essentially moves the market at a faster pace than you would have seen in previous periods of market weakness." Negative sentiment readings indicate the market is running out of sellers, and are thus considered a bullish signal.
☆ Here's how midterm elections could make or break the stock market
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
All that, plus there's the fast-approaching midterm elections that hold plenty more implications for investors. Historically, stocks shoot higher after midterm elections. Basically, the market usually reacts to midterms well because they are predictable in the sense that politicians can't make radical legislative changes. Attention stock market investors: The Fed could keep rates elevated for up to a year. Goldman Sachs detailed how to invest in each stock-market sector to best protect your portfolio from inflation and higher interest rates.
☆ If this trend can hold up, it would spell good news for the stock market
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Climbing Treasury yields usually spook stock investors, but Bespoke Investment Group sees a break in this pattern and that could spell good news for the market. For instance, when the S & P 500 fell to its June low, the 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 3.47%. As of Monday, the S & P 500 closed more than 3% above its June low, though it briefly broke that level in September and early October, adds Bespoke. "I think the stock market is changing its stripes when it comes to yields." The S & P Small Cap 600 was up 2.2% Tuesday, and 9% for the month of October, versus a gain of around 7% for the S & P 500.
☆ This latest raft of Big Tech earnings could help answer a key question around valuation
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The follow-through gains put the S & P 500 on pace to break above the short-term downtrend that's been in place since mid-August. Higher yields (allowing companies to earn more on cash balances and making debt pricier) should mute new buyback activity for many from here out. Here's the Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF versus S & P 500 over five years: The start of mega-cap tech earnings reports will help answer the question of whether the valuation adjustments have gone far enough. Multiple compression has come not just from higher yields (the price-earnings expansion that preceded it also wasn't about ever-lower yields – yields had stopped making new lows in mid-2020, 15 months before the Nasdaq peaked). The overall S & P 500 will show that level of sales growth this quarter.
☆ Here's one key measure of stock performance that suggests the market has already hit a bottom, Leuthold's Jim Paulsen says
  + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Cyclical stocks have been outperforming the S&P 500, suggesting the market has hit a bottom, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold. Cyclical stocks, sensitive to economic changes, have performed "surprisingly well" after the August pullback. "Unlike prior market declines this year, cyclical stocks have held up surprisingly well in the collapse that began in August." The large-cap S&P 500 has dropped by roughly 21% this year, and the small-cap Russell 2000 index has underperformed it only by about 1%. "Not only has the S&P 500 seemingly become more bear-resistant, but its underlying leadership indicates that a market bottom may have already been reached."
☆ Earnings are reinforcing the still-resilient consumer, says Edward Jones' Mahajan
  + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings are reinforcing the still-resilient consumer, says Edward Jones' MahajanMona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, and Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Leuthold Group, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether equities are in a bear or bull market rally, what happens when recession fears surpass inflation fears, and more.
☆ Treasury yields could be peaking soon and that could ease some pressure on stocks
  + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield has been setting new 14-year highs, but strategists expect it to ease from those levels in a matter of weeks, relieving pressure on the stock market. The 2-year Treasury yield, for instance, rose to 4.54% — its highest since 2007. Bond strategists and technical analysts say there is some scope for the 10-year yield to reverse course. Higher yields pressure stocks for a couple of reasons. "If we continue to see strong hiring and a low unemployment rate that will keep rates higher ... the softer the landing the higher rates will be," said Jeffery.
☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan and Leuthold Group's Jim Paulse
  + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan and Leuthold Group's Jim PaulseMona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, and Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Leuthold Group, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether equities are in a bear or bull market rally, what happens when recession fears surpass inflation fears, and more.
☆ As the 3rd-quarter reporting season begins, markets are bracing for signs of a recession that could send stocks into a deeper bear market
  + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
The Fed's aggressive tightening is setting off more warnings about a recession and fallout for the stock market. Ahead of JPMorgan's quarterly report, CEO Jamie Dimon said the economy is on the verge of a recession, and the stock market could fall another 20%. But most importantly, it's Russia's war against Ukraine that is most unsettling to markets and poses a great risk. Meanwhile, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said a "recession playbook" could see stocks fall 10% further. PayPal stock fell after a botched roll-out of an acceptable use policy update that included big fines for the promotion of misinformation.
☆ The Fed is now expected to keep raising rates then hold them there, CNBC survey shows
  + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
That is, the Fed will hike and hold, not hike and cut as many in the markets had been forecasting. The September CNBC Fed Survey shows the average respondent believes the Fed will hike 0.75 percentage point, or 75 basis points, at Wednesday's meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.1%. The new peak rate forecast represents a nearly 40 basis-point increase from the July survey. Ryding sees a potential need for the Fed to hike as high as 5%, from the current range of 2.25%-2.5%. Respondents put the recession probability in the U.S. over the next 12 months at 52%, little changed from the July survey.
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